PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Leave your finesse at the door: USC, Lincoln Riley can change soft image at Michigan

The PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerquestions and doubt stuck this offseason like a wet blanket on a steamy Southern California day. 

USC is soft. Can’t play defense. Can’t win games that matter. 

Then the LSU game in happened in the wildly anticipated season opener, and with one win, the impact of new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn was validated.

The next thing you know, USC can win a big game by playing bully ball — and coach Lincoln Riley suddenly doesn’t look like a one trick, $100 million mistake. 

“Now you know what it takes to go play well,” Riley said Monday during his weekly press conference. 

That seemingly throwaway line is everything. 

Because after two years of getting physically pushed around and overwhelmed defensively, after those two years were heaped on Riley’s previous five at Oklahoma where his teams avoided all things defense — USC is staring at an inflection point in its Big Ten opener at Michigan.

Different conference, different philosophy, different fight. 

Leave your finesse at the door. 

“We’re going to get challenged week after week,” Riley said. “We’ve got to be ready to rise up to the challenge and make sure that they’re getting a big, big damn challenge when they play us.”

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This brings us back to Lynn and the new USC defense, where two games have changed the perception of Riley’s first seven seasons as a head coach: all sizzle, no steak. 

Riley’s teams at Oklahoma and USC have produced three Heisman Trophy winners, elite offenses and entertaining games. And just about zero defense, especially in big moments. 

The days of playing last team with the ball wins in critical Pac-12 and Big 12 games are long gone. Three-play scoring drives, no-huddle and go-go- tempo have been replaced by the beauty of three-and-outs, ball control and field position.

It doesn’t mean Riley’s prolific offense can’t or won’t be as successful in the Big Ten, it just means they’ll go about in a different way. How he calls plays, how he manages the game situationally, how he – hold onto you sword, Tommy Trojan – leans on his defense instead believing his offense can get him out of any predicament. 

This brings Lynn and the USC defense directly into the crosshairs of the Big Ten assimilation, which begins this weekend against a Michigan team that wants to run the ball, play physically on the lines of scrimmage and win a rock fight.

USC’s brief resume under Lynn includes the season-opening statement against LSU, and a shutout of overmatched Utah State. But look closer. 

LSU’s offense is elite, with likely Day 1 picks in the NFL draft at quarterback, wide receiver and on the offensive line. That’s right, as many as four LSU players – QB Garrett Nussmeier, WR Kyren Lacy, and OTs Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. – could be picked in the first round of next year’s NFL draft. 

That group managed all of 20 points on USC.

Then there’s the rent-a-win game against Utah State, where the Aggies had 190 total yards. And consider this: Utah State scored 20 points last week on Utah — the program that for years planted the flag as the Pac-12’s most physical and dominant defense.

It’s early, and USC hasn’t played a conference game, but there might be a significant turn being taken on the defensive side of the ball. The program that wandered arm in arm with mediocrity for the better part of 15 years since former coach Pete Carroll left for the NFL in 2009, gets a prove-it moment on the road against desperate defending national champion Michigan.

In a college football world of ever-changing, weekly perceptions, nothing truly sticks until an absolute defining moment. This is where USC’s new defense – with six new starters from the transfer portal, and five more transfer portal starters from 2023 – continues its metamorphosis from sieve to strength. 

They’re faster, more athletic and physically stronger. They take better angles, they wrap up and don't miss tackles, and there are few coverage busts or run misfits. 

Again, it’s only a two-game resume, but when you go from 121st in the nation in scoring defense in 2023 (34.4 ppg.), to 19th (10 ppg.), something is working. And just so we’re very clear on the change: USC gave up 26 points to San Jose State in last year’s season opener — including 198 yards rushing. 

If USC gives up 198 yards rushing to Michigan, the initiation to the Big Ten won’t goes as planned. 

And the soft reputation – and the questions and doubt – won’t go away. 

“Ultimately, a big part of our season will be determined on are we able to do it week-in and week-out and maintain that physicality on both sides?” Riley said.

Different philosophy, different fight. 

Leave your finesse at the door.